NOAA05-105
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Contact: Carmeyia Gillis
8/24/05
NOAA News Releases 2005
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NOAA ANNOUNCES IMPROVED WEATHER FORECASTS ON THE HORIZON

Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service announced today a significant improvement in the weather and climate models that produce forecasts out to 15 days. Beginning this month, more detailed atmospheric information is being produced at NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center, allowing public and private meteorologists to forecast with increasing accuracy.

The announcement follows major upgrades to NOAA’s Global Forecast System, which is the primary model used to forecast weather patterns around the globe. The GFS is used in a variety of National Weather Service forecasts including hurricanes, heavy precipitation, drought, snowstorms, icing and aviation. Now, the GFS incorporates improved physics of the atmosphere, a clearer representation of the Earth’s terrain, enhanced satellite data from NASA’s Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder, as well as other technical changes.

“Our nation will have longer-ranging alerts and forecasts through these improvements to the current system thanks to its more specific and higher resolution output,” said retired Navy Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “These significant developments will have a huge impact on the economy and citizens quality of life locally and nationally.”

The GFS produces forecasts of wind, temperature, humidity and air pressure for the atmosphere up to 35 miles above the Earth for 1 to 15 days. NOAA is currently working on additional ways to extract and use even more of NASA’s AIRS data in NOAA’s operational weather and climate forecast models.

“This advancement makes it possible for NOAA forecasters to produce more skillful forecasts,” said Brig. Gen. David L. Johnson, U.S. Air Force (Ret.), director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “When the GFS improves, nearly all of the National Weather Service’s operational forecasts improve.”

Based on a re-analysis of selected 2004 North Atlantic tropical storms, NOAA scientists and forecasters are expecting, on average, about a 12-15 percent reduction in track forecast errors at 24 through 36 hours and about a 20 percent reduction in track forecast errors at 4-5 days. The GFS is one of the most important members of the National Weather Service’s family of forecast models.

“One of the most significant milestones of today’s announcement is the increase in model resolution of the GFS,” said Dr. Stephen Lord, EMC director. “The model resolution is going from 35 miles to 22 miles, giving NOAA scientists the ability to forecast more precisely than ever before how precipitation, temperature, humidity and wind events are predicted in the atmosphere, thus affecting weather around the globe.”

NOAA’s National Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories. NOAA’s National Weather Service operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy.

NOAA, an agency of the U.S. Commerce Department, is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and providing environmental stewardship of the nation’s coastal and marine resources.

On the Web

NOAA: http://www.noaa.gov

NOAA’s National Weather Service: http://www.nws.noaa.gov

NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov