Appendix A - NOAA TASK STATEMENT
Appendix B - RECOMMENDED BUDGET for FYs1998 and 1999
Appendix C - ANALYSIS of NOAA/NWS LABOR MODEL
Appendix D - CONTACTS 81Appendix E - ACRONYMS
 

Appendix A - NOAA TASK STATEMENT

Report /Mission:

In the next few months, NOAA and the Department of Commerce will need to determine the level of resources needed to operate the modernized National Weather Service (NWS). This report is required in a short time frame to assist NOAA and the Department in making resource allocation decisions for the FY 1998 NWS operating plan. NOAA and the Department of Commerce will need to understand the programmatic impact of the FY 1998 conference allocation for the National Weather Service and determine if additional resources are required to meet the criteria defined in the assumptions. In addition, resource information is needed for the FY 1999 Departmental budget request to Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to ensure that the criteria defined in the assumptions can be supported.

Recognizing that this time frame is short, we are requesting that the report contain sufficient analysis to determine the necessary resources, or indicate major areas of uncertainty and provide proposals on how to address those issues, consistent with the criteria defined in the assumptions. General Kelly is requested to provide an analysis and recommendations distinguishing between issues which need to resolved in the short term (e.g., FY 1998) and those which are longer term (e.g., FY 1999 and beyond).

In particular, General Kelly should provide an assessment of issues associated with AWIPS functionality and staffing levels (including reductions) and NWS closure plans. He also is requested to analyze the operational regional infrastructure of the NWS as it affects the cost of delivery of services, with specific focus on the NWS plans to accelerate the closure of the Southern Region Headquarters.

Approach:

General Kelly will receive briefings as well as other requested information from NWS and other relevant parties (see Assumptions section). In addition, it is expected that General Kelly will meet with users of NWS products and services to include government and non­government groups and other interested parties such as state emergency managers, commercial weather service providers, and the National Research Council's NWS Modernization Committee, to discuss parameters which would affect the cost of weather service operations, such as timeliness, accuracy, responsiveness, communication and others.

General Kelly should assess the zero­based budget review information which will be provided by the NWS to establish a baseline cost determination of the existing programs. This assessment should consider the costs associated with:

the current and projected staffing plan; (and, in particular, whether the FY 1998 President's budget is adequate to support this; and what resources are needed in FY 1999);

the current and planned modernized field office operations;

the current and planned modernized weather office infrastructure, including the regional headquarters; and

recurring requirements such as operations and maintenance, research and development, technology refreshment, service and product improvement, and training needs.

Outside Experts:

We recommend that General Kelly contact the following people as soon as possible to develop a work plan which would take advantage of their expertise. In parallel, we will contact them to discuss the specific arrangements necessary to provide for their participation in this effort. One possible work plan and personnel assignment could be built upon the following:

Good - technology infusion - plans for both phasing and level of resources

Dutton - identify a priority list of issues which are important to the academic community

McMillion - identify a priority list of concerns with respect to weather services and emergency manager needs;

Dorman - review the cost of planned service and product improvements

Kaehn - assist in the evaluation of the NWS regional infrastructure, specifically focusing on NWS plans to accelerate the closure of the Southern Region Headquarters; and provide an assessment of issues associated with AWIPS functionality and staffing levels (including reductions)/NWS closure plans

NOAA Support:

NOAA will provide access to all information that is required to conduct this assessment, including briefing materials, budget and cost information, GAO and IG reports, staffing and modernization plans, and all other relevant documentation. NOAA will ensure that appropriate NOAA staff are made available to General Kelly for his support , including administrative and clerical, budget, technical and program management. Specific NOAA individuals that General Kelly has identified are being contacted to ascertain their availability.

NOAA will also arrange access to other appropriate government and non­government officials. We anticipate that briefings to Congressional staff will be necessary and NOAA will make the necessary arrangements for these meetings.

Office space in NOAA facilities in Silver Spring has been made available. NOAA will also pay for authorized travel, phones, fax, computer and other required support. NOAA will make appropriate arrangements to acquire additional support from contractors for budget or technical analysis expertise, if required.

Assumptions:

For purposes of preparing this report, General Kelly should base his analysis and recommendations or options on the following assumptions regarding the baseline for NWS modernization and service levels (detailed briefings will be provided to him on this):

FY 1996 current level of services and products, adjusted for permanent changes made as part of the FY 1997 budget shortfall, will continue in FY 1998­1999;

NWS modernization plan will be pursued and completed as currently defined and scheduled in he National Implementation Plan;

Staffing plan will be implemented as defined in the Human Resources staffing plan, adjusted for actions undertake in FY 1997 as part of the NWS streamlining plan;

NWS budget profiles defined in the President's FY 1998 budget request and run­outs, adjusted for Congressional actions;

Guidance established to address the FY 1997 budget situation can continue to be supported in FY 1998­1999. The guidance for FY 1997 is: (1) no direct impact on warning programs; (2) no reductions to modernization systems and schedules; and (3) no permanent staffing reductions in weather forecast offices and river forecast centers.

Deliverable and Time Frame:

A report is request that will contain an assessment of the fiscal resources necessary to operate the modernized weather service, as defined in the National Implementation Plan, focusing on resource requirements for FY 1998 and FY 1999. The report should identify major cost uncertainties associated with the end state of modernization and provide recommendations and/or options on how to proceed with addressing these issues. The report will be due to the Under Secretary and the Secretary of Commerce 60­days from General Kelly's entry-on-duty (EOD) as a limited term SES appointment which will run for 90 days.

I. Scope

II. Approach

III. Methodology

IV. Assumptions

V. Cost Analysis

Determination of the level of resources needed in FY 1998 and FY 1999 to proceed on schedule with weather service modernization and ensure that the current levels of services are supported, to include the cost of the following recurring fiscal requirements:

• Operations and maintenance
• Current and projected staffing plan
• Infrastructure to support current level of services and to meet modernization as defined in NIP
• Research and development
• Technology refreshment and infusion (both phasing and level of resources)
• Service and product improvement (including addressing concerns identified by the emergency management community)
  Training

VI. Specific Issues

• Assessment of issues associated with AWIPS functionality and staffing levels (including reductions) and NWS closure plans.
• Analysis of the operational regional infrastructure of the NWS as it affects the cost of delivery services, with specific focus on the NWS plans to accelerate the closure of the Southern Region Headquarters.

VII. Recommendations and/or Options

• Recommendation and/or options on levels of necessary resources necessary for FY 1998 and FY 1999 based upon the above analysis.
• Recommendations and/or options identifying major areas of uncertainty associated with the end state of modernization which would affect cost and proposals on how to address the uncertainties.

Appendix B - RECOMMENDED BUDGET for FYs 1998 and 1999

Table 22 summarizes the NOAA Review recommendations. This table is provided in the budget account terms commonly used by NOAA/NWS in order to provide a quick reference for this report. The same information is provided in the official NOAA budget structure on the following pages.

FY 1998 Budget Summary			Presented in Simplified Structure
Pres. Budget	NOAA Review	Delta	($ in thousands)
			Operations and Research
377,157			NWS BASE **
73,674			MARDI
450,831	473,400	22,569	Subtotal O&R (BASE and MARDI)
			Systems
50,968	49,216	(1,752)	NEXRAD
9,835	9,695	(140)	ASOS
116,910	115,862	(1,048)	AWIPS/NOAAPort
13,910	13,910	0	Central Computer
191,623	188,683	(2,940)	Subtotal Systems
			Facilities
2,950	3,468	518	Facility Maintenance
13,823	13,823	0	WFO Construction
700	700	0	NCEP Construction
17,473	17,991	518	Subtotal Facilities
659,927	680,074	20,147	FY 1998 TOTAL

 

FY 1999 Budget Summary			Presented in Simplified Structure
OMB Submit	NOAA Review	Delta	($ in thousands)
			Operations and Research
405,987			NWS BASE **
64,036			MARDI
470,023	498,650	28,627	Subtotal O&R (BASE and MARDI)
			Systems
54,954	47,516	(7,438)	NEXRAD
11,971	12,111	140	ASOS
81,861	80,856	(1,005)	AWIPS/NOAAPort
15,500	15,500	0	Central Computer
164,286	155,983	(8,303)	Subtotal Systems
			Facilities
4,950	5,400	450	Facility Maintenance
9,526	9,526	0	WFO Construction
850	850	0	NCEP Construction
15,326	15,776	450	Subtotal Facilities
649,635	670,409	20,774	FY 1999 TOTAL
** -- Local Forecasts and Warnings, Central Forecast Guidance, and Atmospheric and Hydrological Research

 

A. - Budget Summary In Traditional NOAA Structure

Table 23 reflects the FY 1998 President's Budget in the NOAA budget structure format and compares it to the NOAA Review recommendations.

FY 1998 NOAA Budget Structure
Pres. Budget	NOAA Review	Delta	($ in thousands)
OPERATIONS, RESEARCH, & FACILITIES APPROPRIATION
			Operations and Research
308,000			Local Warning & Forecasts +
			(Includes $10,794k Increase - see Table 25)
73,674			MARDI
910			Radiosonde Replacement +
619			Susquehanna River Basin Flood System +
35,596			Aviation Forecasts +
418,799			Subtotal Local Forecasts &Warnings
29,543			Central Forecast Guidance +
2,489			Atmospheric and Hydrologic Research +
450,831	473,400	22,569	Subtotal O&R (BASE and MARDI)
			+ Baseline items/activities/programs
			Systems Acquisition
39,591	38,174	(1,417)	NEXRAD
5,341	5,341	0	ASOS
0	0	0	AWIPS/NOAAPort
8,000	8,000	0	Computer Facility Upgrades
52,932	51,515	(1,417)	Subtotal Systems Acquisition
503,763	524,915	21,152	Subtotal , NWS direct-Funded O&R
			Facilities
2,950	3,468	518	WFO Maintenance
506,713	528,383	21,670	SubTOTAL, ORF
CAPITAL ASSETS ACQUISITION APPROPRIATION
			System Acquisition
11,377	11,042	(335)	NEXRAD
4,494	4,354	(140)	ASOS
116,910	115,862	(1,048)	AWIPS/NOAAPort
5,910	5,910	0	Central Computer
138,691	137,168	(1,523)	Subtotal Systems Acquisition
			Construction
13,823	13,823	0	WFO Construction
700	700	0	NCEP Construction
14,523	14,523	0	Subtotal Construction
153,214	151,691	(1,523)	SubTOTAL , CAA
659,927	680,074	20,147	TOTAL

Table 24 reflects the FY 1999 OMB Submission in the NOAA budget structure format and compares it to the NOAA Review recommendations.

FY 1999 NOAA Budget Structure
OMB Submit	NOAA Review	Delta	($ in thousands)
OPERATIONS, RESEARCH, & FACILITIES APPROPRIATION
			Operations and Research
333,150			Local Warning & Forecasts +
			(Includes $25,150k Increase - see Table 26)
64,036			MARDI
4,590			Radiosonde Replacement +
619			Susquehanna River Basin Flood System +
35,596			Aviation Forecasts +
437,991			Subtotal Local Forecasts &Warnings
29,543			Central Forecast Guidance +
2,489			Atmospheric and Hydrologic Research +
470,023	498,650	28,627	Subtotal O&R (BASE and MARDI)
			+ = Baseline items/activities/programs
			Systems Acquisition
45,298	38,346	(6,952)	NEXRAD
8,116	8,116	0	ASOS
13,189	13,189	0	AWIPS/NOAAPort
4,600	4,600	0	Computer Facility Upgrades
71,203	64,251	(6,952)	Subtotal Systems Acquisition
541,226	562,901	21,675	Subtotal , NWS direct-Funded O&R
			Facilities
4,950	5,400	450	WFO Maintenance
546,176	568,301	22,125	SubTOTAL, ORF
CAPITAL ASSETS ACQUISITION APPROPRIATION
			System Acquisition
9,656	9,170	(486)	NEXRAD
3,855	3,995	140	ASOS
68,672	67,667	(1,005)	AWIPS/NOAAPort
10,900	10,900	0	Central Computer
93,083	91,732	(1,351)	Subtotal Systems Acquisition
			Construction
9,526	9,526	0	WFO Construction
850	850	0	NCEP Construction
10,376	10,376	0	Subtotal Construction
103,459	102,108	(1,351)	SubTOTAL , CAA
649,635	670,409	20,774	TOTAL

 

B. - Summary of Program Increases in the Budget Structure

According to NOAA policy officials, the FY 1998 President's Budget only partially restored mandatory personnel pay raises and adjustments for real inflation, and leaves an un-funded residual of $15.65 million. In the FY 1999 OMB Submit, the un-funded residual is $11.76 million.

Table 25 and Table 26 reflect the Program Change Increases in the FY 1998 President's Budget and FY 1999 OMB Submit (associated with Local Forecasts and Warnings) and compares them to the NOAA Review recommendations.

Pres. Budget	NOAA Review	Delta	($ in thousands)
6,655			BASE Restoration
4,139			Mandatory Inflationary Costs Increases
10,794	10,794		Total

OMB Submit	NOAA Review	Delta	($ in thousands)
18,000	18,000		BASE Restoration
1,650	0	(1,650)	MAROB
750	750	0	Lightning Data Network
4,750	0	(4,750)	Advanced Hydrological Prediction System
25,150	18,750	(6,400)	Subtotal, Program Increases
New Initiatives, separately Identified under Local Forecasts and Warnings
3,680	4,000	320	Radiosonde Replacement Network
			(Increase of 3,680k over 910k - Total 4,590k)
28,830	22,750	(6,080)	Total

 

C. - NWS FTE Distributed By Funding Sources

Several sources provide funding for the FTE counted on NWS staffing rolls. Table 27 and Table 28 provide an overall summary. These tables reflect the FTEs contained in the FY 1998 President's Budget and the FY 1999 OMB Submission and compares them to the NOAA Review recommendations. It also compares each of these categories to the NWS FTE Streamlining Plan Targets for FY 1998 and FY 1999.

Table 29 and Table 30 show the distribution, in greater detail, within the NWS organizational structure.

FY 1998 FTE Distribution	Pres.	NOAA
Funding Source	Budget	Review	Delta
BASE/MARDI	4521	4598	77
Modernization Systems	219	219	0
NWS Direct Funded FTE	4740	4817	77
Other Funding Sources	222	222	0
TOTAL, NWS	4962	5039	77
FTE Streamlining Target	5070	5070
DELTA	-108	-31	77
* In FY 1998, assumes that of the 373 FTE for Systems in the President's Budget, 219 FTE are allocated to the NWS and 154 FTE to other line offices;

FY 1999 FTE Distribution	OMB	NOAA
Funding Source	Submit	Review	Delta
BASE/MARDI	4401	4606	205
Modernization Systems	211	211	0
NWS Direct Funded FTE	4612	4817	205
Other Funding Sources	222	222	0
TOTAL, NWS	4834	5039	205
FTE Streamlining Target	4809	4809
DELTA	25	230	205
* In FY 1999, assumes that of the 264 FTE for Systems in the OMB Submission, 211 FTE are allocated to the NWS and 53 FTE to other line offices

Organization.	TOTAL	BASE	MARDI	FMAINT	ASOS	NEXRAD	AWIPS	FMP	REIMB	LINOFF	NIDS	NRCRVL
Headquarters
AA	94	82	0	0	0	0	13	0	0	0	0	0
OM	80	73	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	2	0	0
OH	82	50	0	0	0	3	21	0	8	0	0	0
OSD	73	62	0	0	0	1	10	0	0	0	0	0
NWSTC	30	26	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
NDBC	33	33	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
NCEP	371	366	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0
CENTRAL	338	164	1	0	4	114	4	0	17	0	0	34
OSM	99	71	0	0	14	6	3	0	4	0	1	0
Subtotal HQ	1,200	927	3	0	18	128	56	0	29	5	1	34
Regional Headqtrs
East Region	45	44	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Southern Region	45	45	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Central Region	45	44	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Western Region	45	45	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Alaskan Region	35	34	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Pacific Region	24	22	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0
Subtotal Regional HQ	239	234	0	0	3	0	0	0	3	0	0	0
Field	3,600	3,345	90	0	14	0	0	0	151	0	0	0
GRAND Total	5,039	4,506	93	0	35	128	56	0	183	5	1	34

Organization.	TOTAL	BASE	MARDI	FMAINT	ASOS	NEXRAD	AWIPS	FMP	REIMB	LINOFF	NIDS	NRCRVL
Headquarters
AA	94	82	0	0	0	0	13	0	0	0	0	0
OM	80	73	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	2	0	0
OH	82	56	0	0	0	3	15	0	8	0	0	0
OSD	73	64	0	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	0	0
NWSTC	30	26	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
NDBC	33	33	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
NCEP	371	367	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0
CENTRAL	338	164	1	0	4	114	4	0	17	0	0	34
OSM	99	71	0	0	14	6	3	0	4	0	1	0
Subtotal HQ	1,200	935	3	0	18	128	48	0	29	5	1	34
Regional Headqtrs
East Region	45	44	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Southern Region	45	45	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Central Region	45	44	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Western Region	45	45	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Alaskan Region	35	34	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Pacific Region	24	22	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0
Sub-total Regional Hqs.	239	234	0	0	3	0	0	0	3	0	0	0
Field	3,600	3,368	67	0	14	0	0	0	151	0	0	0
GRAND Total	5,039	4,536	70	0	35	128	48	0	183	5	1	34

 

D. - NWS Modernization Program Budget

Table 31 summarizes the Modernization Programs by funding account, Table 32 shows the funding totals for each Modernization System.

Line Item	FY 1998 Pres. Budget	FY 1998 NOAA Rvw	FY 1999 OMB Submit	FY 1999 NOAA Rvw
Capital Acquisition Account (CAA)
NEXRAD	11,377	11,042	9,656	9,170
ASOS	4,494	4,354	3,855	3,995
AWIPS	116,910	115,862	68,672	67,667
Central Computer	5,910	5,910	10,900	10,900
System Acquisition (ORF)
NEXRAD	39,591	38,174	45,298	38,346
ASOS	5,341	5,341	8,116	8,116
AWIPS	0	0	13,189	13,189
CENTRAL COMPUTER	8,000	8,000	4,600	4,600
Capital Acquisition Account (CAA)
WFO Construction	13,823	13,823	9,526	9,526
NCEP Construction	700	700	850	850
Facilities (ORF)
WFO Maintenance	2,950	3,468	4,950	5,400
Total	209,096	206,674	179,612	171,759
Difference	2,4