Gordon, a complex system, followed
an unusual, erratic path over the western Caribbean Sea and islands,
Florida and the southwestern Atlantic. Its torrential rains caused
a catastrophic loss of life in Haiti and extensive agricultural
damage in south Florida.
a. Synoptic History
Disturbed weather was noted over
the southwestern Caribbean Sea during much of the first week
of November. Convection over the area was enhanced by the passage
of two tropical waves during this period. The second of these
waves induced the formation of a lower-tropospheric cyclonic
circulation, as indicated by rawinsonde data, just to the north
of Panama around 0000 UTC 6 November. Meteorologists at the NHC's
Tropical Satellite Analysis and Forecast (TSAF) unit began tracking
this circulation center from satellite imagery beginning on 6
November. By 1200 UTC 7 November, the convective cloud pattern
associated with this circulation had enough curvature to warrant
an initial satellite intensity classification, a T1.0 on the
Dvorak scale. Early on the 8th, deep convection became concentrated
in a cluster not far offshore of the southeast coast of Nicaragua.
By 1800 UTC on the 8th, Dvorak intensity estimates from TSAF
and the NESDIS
Synoptic
Analysis Branch (SAB) were T2.0 and T1.5 respectively, and
surface observations showed the presence of a 25-knot circulation.
The tropical depression stage of Gordon begins at this time (Table 1). Figure
1 (65K GIF) shows the subsequent track, an interesting one
indeed.
There was limited upper-level outflow from the system, primarily
to the north and northeast, which favored very slow strengthening.
The depression moved toward the coast of Nicaragua, and an Air Force Hurricane Hunter
plane investigating the system found that the center was very
near the coast by 1800 on the 9th. Spot wind reports from the
aircraft suggested that the cyclone was nearing storm strength.
However, the close proximity to land inhibited further intensification.
The center hugged the coast of Nicaragua from 0000 to 1200 UTC
on the 10th, and is estimated to have moved just onshore near
Puerto Cabezas at 0600 UTC. Then, in response to a trough aloft
to the northwest, the tropical cyclone turned northeast, moving
back over the western Caribbean, and strengthened into Tropical
Storm Gordon by 1800 UTC. Data from Air Force flights into Gordon
showed that little additional intensification occurred over the
ensuing 24 hours, as the storm moved slowly north-northeastward.
Surface and aircraft data showed that Gordon consisted of a broad
cyclonic circulation, which covered much of the western Caribbean,
within which was embedded a smaller scale vortex.
Visible satellite pictures on the 11th revealed that Gordon was
being sheared by upper level west-southwesterly flow. On 12 November,
Gordon turned east-northeastward, and eastward, heading for Jamaica.
Although bursts of strong convection were occurring near and
east of the estimated storm center, the system remained disorganized
with maximum sustained winds near 40 knots. The low-level center
of Gordon was clearly exposed on visible satellite pictures on
the 12th. Gordon's center moved across eastern Jamaica early
on the 13th and accelerated further, nearing eastern Cuba by
1200 UTC that same day. As Gordon passed near Guantanamo, Cuba,
the center became disorganized and difficult to locate. However,
it is estimated from surface synoptic reports that the center
that was previously being tracked moved rapidly northward across
Cuba and was nearing the southern Bahamas by 1800 UTC 13 November.
Around that time, Gordon's structure started to become more complicated.
While Gordon was crossing Cuba, an upper-tropospheric trough,
which had been intensifying along 80°W north of 20°N,
was cutting off a cyclonic circulation near the Straits of Florida.
This upper-level system appeared to induce surface cyclogenesis
in the vicinity of the central Bahamas. From 1800 UTC on the
13th through 0000 UTC on the 14th, there were multiple low-level
centers embedded within a broader-scale circulation that covered
most of central-eastern Cuba and the Bahamas. This larger circulation
had accompanied Gordon since the tropical cyclone's inception,
but was strengthened and modified by the influence of the upper-level
cyclone. After 0000 UTC on the 14th, the cloud pattern and surface
wind field resembled that of a subtropical cyclone, with a center
of circulation becoming dominant just to the south of the central
Bahamas.
A deep-layer ridge near the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast and a larger-scale
deep-layer cyclone (within which Gordon was embedded) provided
a steering current which carried Gordon, in its transformed state,
west-northwestward. As a result of the increased surface pressure
gradient between the broad low that accompanied Gordon and the
high to the north, winds increased to near gale force over portions
of the Florida peninsula late on the 13th. The center of Gordon
passed south of the western Bahamas on the 14th and moved across
the Straits of Florida early on the 15th. During this time, there
was a lack of deep convection near the center and strongest winds
were well-removed from the center. Radiosonde data were indicative
of a cold-core system, except over the eastern portion of the
circulation where warmer mid-tropospheric air was still prevalent.
As Gordon moved over the Straits of Florida, Air
Force Hurricane Hunters estimated that the center was rather
close to the coast of Cuba, since they were unable to close off
a circulation to the north of the "no-fly" line off
the north coast of the island. However, the center was broad
at this time with light winds covering much of the southern Straits.
Just before dawn on the 15th, the radar observations from Key
West suggested a reformation of Gordon's center just to the south
of the lower Florida Keys, closer to deep convection. A special
radiosonde release from Key West at 0600 UTC showed mid-tropospheric
warming near the center of cyclone, indicating that Gordon was
beginning to re-acquire tropical characteristics. The broad center
moved northwestward over the lower Keys, and decelerated over
the extreme southeast Gulf of Mexico. Early on the 16th, Gordon
turned northward, and then north-northeastward, recurving under
the influence of a mid- to upper-tropospheric shortwave trough
moving eastward from the central United States. By 1300 UTC that
day, the center crossed the southwest coast of Florida near Fort
Myers. Maximum sustained winds were near 45 knots.
Moving northeastward, Gordon crossed the Florida peninsula, its
center emerging over the Atlantic just north of Vero Beach around
2200 UTC 16 November. Central pressure was falling, and based
on a report from the ship ZHEM7, maximum winds increased
to near 55 knots shortly after Gordon moved back over the water.
Gordon's northeastward motion accelerated on the 17th, and it
strengthened into a hurricane. Just when it appeared to be headed
safely out to sea, however, the hurricane abruptly slowed down
and turned northward, then northwestward, and then west-northwestward,
threatening the coast of North Carolina. This turn of events
could be attributed to a mid-tropospheric ridge, which built
over the eastern U.S. behind the shortwave trough that brought
about Gordon's latest recurvature, and the fact that the trough
essentially "out-ran" Gordon. The center of the hurricane
came within about 80 n mi of the Outer Banks at 1200 UTC 18 November,
before turning southward and south-southeastward. Gordon weakened
to a tropical storm around 1800 UTC on the 18th as it entrained
cooler, drier air into its circulation and was affected by northwesterly
shear. Turning southward and then southwestward, weakening Gordon
executed a "figure 8" track off the southeast U.S.
coast. Gordon lost most of its deep convection on the 19th, and
weakened to a depression early on the 20th. The weakening depression
turned westward and west-northwestward, crossing the coast of
Florida near Cape Canaveral as an inconsequential tropical cyclone.
Gordon turned northward, then north-northeastward, crossed Georgia,
and dissipated over South Carolina.
b. Meteorological Statistics
The "best track" positions
and intensities, every six hours, for Gordon are listed in Table 1. Figures
2 and 3 (66K GIF) show the best track pressure and wind curves,
respectively, for Gordon as a function of time, along with the
observations on which these curves are based. The observations
are from Air Force
Reserve unit and NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft reports, satellite-derived intensity
estimates (using the Dvorak technique applied by the NHC's TSAF
unit, the NESDIS
Synoptic Analysis Branch (SAB), and the Air
Force Global Weather Central (AFGWC)), and surface reports
from ships, buoys and land stations.
Table 2a lists selected surface observations
taken during Gordon. A number of observing sites reported sustained
winds of tropical storm force. Some regional maxima are of interest.
In Florida, the highest known sustained wind speed measurement
from a land station, 46 knots, was from Virginia Key. A peak
gust of 72 knots was recorded by an amateur meteorologist in
southern Dade County. A 10-minute average wind speed of 62 knots
was obtained from Diamond Shoals lighthouse, off the North Carolina
Outer Banks. The 60-knot 1-minute winds with peak gusts to 104
knots, reported from the Guantanamo Navy base, occurred in a
thunderstorm microburst and is not considered representative
of the intensity of the tropical storm when it was near that
site.
There were a number of ship reports of tropical storm force winds
associated with Gordon, and these are listed in Table
2b. Ships WPPO and KLHC reported the highest
sustained winds, 68 knots, and ship LAHE2 reported the
lowest pressure, 987 mb.
The Air Force Reserve's
Hurricane Hunter unit carried out numerous missions into
Gordon, providing valuable information on its position, intensity
and wind distribution. Gordon's peak intensity is estimated to
have occurred around 0000 UTC 18 November, when reconnaissance
data from the Hurricane
Hunters indicated a minimum pressure of 980 mb. Peak flight-level
(700 mb) winds of 96 knots were measured at 0123 UTC. This suggests
maximum 1-minute surface winds near 75 knots.
Gordon produced heavy rains over Jamaica, eastern Cuba and Hispaniola.
In Hispaniola the persistent southerly flow to the east of the
broad circulation that accompanied Gordon, combined with upslope
motion over steep topography, generated prolonged rains that
led to disastrous floods and mud slides. Gordon also dumped heavy
rains over the Florida peninsula, except for the west coastal
area north of Fort Myers. Storm total rainfall amounts of 6 to
9 inches occurred over most of the eastern third of the peninsula,
with totals to almost 11 inches in Volusia county, 12 or 13 inches
over portions of southern and northern Dade county and as high
as 15 or 16 inches in some locations in Broward county.
There were six confirmed tornadoes associated with Gordon, all
in Florida. Four of these were in Palm Beach County: one in Delray
Beach; one in Jupiter; one in Gulf Stream; and, one in Lake Worth.
A tornado touchdown was also reported in southern Volusia County
in the Iron Bend area. By far the most significant tornado occurred
in southern Brevard County near the towns of Micco and Barefoot
Bay. This tornado originated as a waterspout and moved onshore
along a west-northwest path, striking the Snug Harbor/Barefoot
Bay mobile home communities. Its remnant, a funnel cloud, was
last sighted near Interstate 95 in southern Brevard County.
c. Casualty and Damage Statistics
Although the exact death count
will probably never be known, flooding and mud slides due to
Gordon caused a catastrophic loss of life in Haiti. On 19 November,
the Associated Press reported (quoting Haitian government officials)
531 deaths in Haiti. On 22 November, a bulletin from the Port-au-Prince
Radio Metropole (in French) quoted an announcement, made the
previous day, from the Haitian Ministry of Defense that the number
of reported deaths was 2,000. However, according to Reuters News
Agency, a Haitian Ministry of Defense source was quoted on 21
November as saying "there could be up to 2,000 dead".
The Miami Herald reported on 24 November that the death toll
in Haiti was at least 829 and "could go much higher".
Lastly, a report from the United Nations Department of Humanitarian
Affairs, Geneva on 21 December shows that the death toll in Haiti
was "finally estimated" at 1,122. This last figure
appears to be the most reliable one.
United Press International (UPI) reports indicate that there
were 6 deaths in Costa Rica. Other reports show 5 deaths in the
Dominican Republic, 2 in Jamaica, and 2 in Cuba.
There was a total of 8 deaths in Florida directly attributable
to Gordon. One man drowned off Ft. Lauderdale Beach in Broward
County in a rip current while rescuing his 8-year old son. One
male surfer drowned off Haulover Beach in north Dade County.
One woman drowned along a north Dade beach. One man drowned and
one woman nearly drowned in Dade county when a car plunged into
the Miami River during heavy rains. One man drowned in Dade county
when a car plunged into a canal during heavy rains. Two men drowned
when a boat was overturned at Hillsboro Inlet in Broward county
by swells from Gordon (then located off the Georgia coast). One
74-year old man was killed by trauma to the head, received during
the tornado in Brevard county. This tornado also caused 40 injuries
(six people hospitalized, two serious injuries).
Most of Gordon's damage was due to fresh water flooding of agricultural
areas (vegetables and tropical fruits were the most severely
affected crops) in Dade and Collier Counties. In south Florida,
some trees, power lines, and traffic signals were blown down.
Power was disrupted to 425,000 customers. Gordon caused a 508-foot
(154 m) Turkish cargo vessel to drag anchor off Ft. Lauderdale,
running it aground less than 50 yards off the beach.
Tornadoes in Jupiter and Gulf Stream caused no known damage;
the tornado in Delray Beach caused minor damage; and the tornado
in Lake Worth uprooted several trees, damaged 2 business and
39 homes. The Volusia County tornado knocked numerous trees down
and did minor damage to homes. The Brevard County tornado did
considerable damage in the Snug Harbor/Barefoot Bay mobile home
communities. About 62 mobile homes were destroyed, 46 received
major damage and 181 had minor damage.
A 49-foot sailboat was disabled about 100 n mi off of Norfolk,
Virginia. The vessel's crew of three was rescued via helicopter
by the Coast Guard.
There was significant beach erosion along portions of the Florida
east coast and the North Carolina coast. Five homes were destroyed
along the Outer Banks. However, those structures had already
been condemned due to damages received a year earlier in Hurricane
Emily.
Gordon caused an estimated $275 million in agricultural losses
in Florida. Insured property damage, not including that covered
by the Federal Flood Insurance Program, is estimated at $60 million.
Additional damage to property covered by the Flood Program, uninsured
property, utilities and public works, brings the total damage
estimate from Gordon in the United States to near $400 million.
d. Forecast and Warning Critique
Predicting the track of Gordon
proved to be a challenge for forecasters. The objective track
prediction models frequently had trouble handling this atypical
system, and often gave conflicting guidance; this translated
into some large official forecast errors. Table
3a lists the average official track forecast errors and the
number of cases for Gordon, excluding the depression stage, and
Table 3b lists the average errors for
some of the models. It can be seen that the average official
errors are 10 to 30 per cent higher than the most recent decadal
average. The biggest track prediction errors were incurred after
Gordon exited Florida into the Atlantic, when it was thought
(for a while) that the system would be carried well out to sea.
Comparing Tables 3a and 3b
reveals that the average official forecast errors were generally
better than, or comparable to, the average errors for the models
shown. Exceptions were the deep BAM at hours 24-48, and the GFDL model at hours
48 and 72, which had noticeably lower errors than the official
forecast.
More often than not, the intensity of Gordon was slightly underforecast
in the NHC advisories from the time of its formation up to the
time it reached Florida. Part of the negative bias could be attributed
to the fact that it was expected that the storm would be in a
strong shear environment, and the subtropical-type transformation/development
was not fully anticipated in the official forecasts. There were
some larger magnitude underforecasts (up to 30-40 knots for 36-48
hour forecasts) for the time that Gordon was strengthening into
a hurricane. After that time, Gordon was not predicted to weaken
as rapidly as was observed.
Table 4 lists the various watches and warnings
for Gordon. The tropical storm warning issued for southeast Florida
and the Keys on 14 November replaced a gale warning that had
been in effect since the previous day. This was done to heighten
awareness of the weather situation, even though the predicted
wind conditions had not changed significantly. A minor miscommunication
with the government of the Bahamas resulted in some slight discrepancies
in the status of tropical storm warnings over the northwest Bahamas
on 15-16 November.
The 72-hour strike probabilities (i.e. chance of the center of
Gordon coming within 65 nautical miles of an indicated location
within a 72-hour period) that were issued with each advisory
are listed in Table 5.
Table 1. Preliminary
best track, Hurricane Gordon, 8-21 November, 1994.
Date/Time
(UTC) |
Position |
Pressure
(mb) |
Wind Speed
(kt) |
Stage |
|
Lat. (°N) |
Lon. (°W) |
|
8/1200 |
11.9 |
82.3 |
1009 |
25 |
Tropical Depression |
|
1800 |
12.0 |
82.5 |
1008 |
25 |
" " |
|
9/0000 |
12.3 |
82.8 |
1007 |
30 |
" " |
|
0600 |
12.5 |
83.0 |
1007 |
30 |
" " |
|
1200 |
12.8 |
83.2 |
1007 |
30 |
" " |
|
1800 |
13.2 |
83.4 |
1007 |
30 |
" " |
|
10/0000 |
13.6 |
83.4 |
1007 |
30 |
" " |
|
0600 |
14.0 |
83.4 |
1008 |
30 |
" " |
|
1200 |
14.3 |
83.2 |
1008 |
30 |
" " |
|
1800 |
14.6 |
82.7 |
1006 |
35 |
Tropical Storm |
|
11/0000 |
15.1 |
82.4 |
1006 |
35 |
" " |
|
0600 |
15.7 |
82.3 |
1003 |
35 |
" " |
|
1200 |
16.3 |
82.2 |
1005 |
35 |
" " |
|
1800 |
16.9 |
81.5 |
1004 |
35 |
" " |
|
12/0000 |
17.2 |
80.8 |
1000 |
40 |
" " |
|
0600 |
17.4 |
80.2 |
999 |
40 |
" " |
|
1200 |
17.5 |
79.8 |
999 |
40 |
" " |
|
1800 |
17.4 |
79.2 |
999 |
35 |
" " |
|
13/0000 |
17.6 |
77.9 |
999 |
35 |
" " |
|
0600 |
18.3 |
76.0 |
1001 |
40 |
" " |
|
1200 |
19.9 |
75.0 |
1000 |
40 |
" " |
|
1800 |
21.5 |
75.4 |
1001 |
40 |
" " |
|
14/0000 |
22.1 |
76.3 |
999 |
40 |
" " |
|
0600 |
22.7 |
77.5 |
998 |
45 |
" " |
|
1200 |
23.2 |
78.3 |
997 |
45 |
" " |
|
1800 |
23.4 |
79.1 |
998 |
45 |
" " |
|
15/0000 |
23.6 |
79.9 |
998 |
45 |
" " |
|
0600 |
23.9 |
80.8 |
999 |
45 |
" " |
|
1200 |
24.5 |
81.6 |
999 |
45 |
" " |
|
1800 |
24.9 |
82.1 |
998 |
45 |
" " |
|
16/0000 |
25.4 |
82.5 |
998 |
45 |
" " |
|
0600 |
25.7 |
82.4 |
997 |
45 |
" " |
|
1200 |
26.4 |
82.0 |
995 |
45 |
" " |
|
1800 |
27.1 |
81.4 |
995 |
45 |
" " |
|
17/0000 |
28.0 |
80.0 |
993 |
55 |
" " |
|
0600 |
29.0 |
78.5 |
989 |
55 |
" " |
|
1200 |
30.0 |
76.7 |
987 |
60 |
" " |
|
1800 |
31.5 |
74.8 |
981 |
65 |
Hurricane |
|
18/0000 |
33.1 |
74.2 |
980 |
75 |
" |
|
0600 |
33.5 |
74.7 |
981 |
70 |
" |
|
1200 |
33.7 |
75.7 |
984 |
70 |
" |
|
1800 |
33.2 |
75.9 |
986 |
60 |
Tropical Storm |
|
19/0000 |
32.5 |
75.5 |
992 |
50 |
" " |
|
0600 |
31.6 |
75.0 |
996 |
45 |
" " |
|
1200 |
31.1 |
74.8 |
1000 |
40 |
" " |
|
1800 |
30.4 |
75.0 |
1005 |
35 |
" " |
|
20/0000 |
29.8 |
75.3 |
1007 |
35 |
" " |
|
0600 |
28.9 |
76.2 |
1008 |
30 |
Tropical Depression |
|
1200 |
28.4 |
77.2 |
1009 |
30 |
" " |
|
1800 |
28.2 |
78.6 |
1009 |
25 |
" " |
|
21/0000 |
28.2 |
79.8 |
1010 |
25 |
" " |
|
0600 |
29.2 |
81.5 |
1012 |
20 |
" " |
|
1200 |
31.3 |
81.8 |
1013 |
20 |
" " |
|
1800 |
34.1 |
79.8 |
1013 |
20 |
" " |
|
22/0000 |
|
|
|
|
Dissipating |
|
|
|
18/0000 |
33.1 |
74.2 |
980 |
75 |
Minimum Pressure |
|
Landfall: |
|
Near Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua |
|
10/0600 |
13.9 |
83.3 |
1008 |
30 |
Tropical Depression |
|
Near Kingston, Jamaica |
|
13/0300 |
17.9 |
76.8 |
1000 |
35 |
Tropical Storm |
|
Near Guantanamo, Cuba |
|
13/1300 |
20.0 |
74.9 |
1000 |
40 |
Tropical Storm |
|
Near Key West, Florida |
|
15/1300 |
24.6 |
81.7 |
999 |
45 |
Tropical Storm |
|
Near Fort Myers, Florida |
|
16/1300 |
26.5 |
81.9 |
996 |
45 |
Tropical Storm |
|
Near Cape Canaveral, Florida |
|
21/0300 |
28.5 |
80.6 |
1011 |
25 |
Tropical Depression |
Table 2a. Hurricane Gordon
selected surface observations, November 1994.
|
|
Minimum sea-level
pressure |
Maximum surface wind speed
(knots) |
|
|
Location |
Pressure
(mb) |
Date/time
(UTC) |
1-minute
average |
Peak
gust |
Date/timea
(UTC) |
Storm surge
(tide height
above normal
(ft) |
Rain
(storm total)
(in) |
|
|
Florida |
|
NOAA Buoy 41010
(28.9°N 78.5°W) |
988.2 |
17/0700 |
34 d |
46 |
17/0800 |
|
|
|
NOAA Buoy 41006
(29.3°N 77.3°W) |
990.2 |
17/1000 |
34 d |
45 |
17/0600 |
|
|
|
|
Vero Beach Airport (VRB) |
994.9 |
16/2151,2252 |
|
36 |
15/0423 |
|
6.30 |
|
|
Melbourne (Palm Bay) |
995.0 |
16/1630 |
29 |
36 |
15/1625 |
|
6.60 |
|
|
Melbourne Airport (MLB) |
996.3 |
16/2250 |
|
39 |
15/2028 |
|
9.20 |
|
|
Melbourne Beach |
|
|
|
44 |
15/2019 |
|
|
|
|
Naples Airport (MLB) |
996.3 |
16/1155 |
20 |
29 |
16/0816,1031 |
|
|
|
NOAA Buoy 41009
(28.5°N 80.2°W) |
996.4 |
17/0000 |
33 d |
44 |
16/0900 |
|
|
|
|
Fort Myers (FMY) |
996.6 |
16/1355 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Regional SW Airport (RSW) |
|
|
28 |
45 |
16/1648 |
|
|
|
|
West Palm Beach (PBI) |
998.0 |
16/2145 |
34 |
49 |
16/0404 |
|
8.87 |
|
|
Lake Worth CMAN |
998.9 |
16/2100 |
41 b |
52 |
14/1300 |
|
|
|
|
Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport (FXE) |
998.6 |
16/2147 |
25 |
30 |
16/0404 |
|
|
|
|
Miami Beach (MIBF1) |
|
|
34 |
48 |
14/1448 |
2.0 c |
5.76 |
|
NOAA Buoy 42037
(24.5°N 81.4°W) |
998.9 |
15/1000 |
26 d |
33 |
14/1400,1600 |
|
|
|
|
Long Key CMAN |
999.1 |
15/0800 |
29 b |
35 |
14/1700 |
|
|
|
|
Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport (FLL) |
999.3 |
16/1950 |
28 |
40 |
15/1050 |
|
|
|
|
West End (Grand Bahama) CMAN |
|
|
27 b |
35 |
14/1800 |
|
|
|
|
Sombrero Key CMAN |
999.4 |
15/0800 |
35 b |
39 |
14/2200 |
|
|
|
|
Key West (EYW) |
999.7 |
15/0920 |
26 |
43 |
14/2030 |
|
0.84 |
|
|
Sand Key CMAN |
999.9 |
15/0800 |
37 b |
43 |
14/1900 |
|
|
|
|
Molasses Reef CMAN |
1000.2 |
15/0700 |
39 b |
50 |
14/1300 |
|
|
|
|
Miami International Airport (MIA) |
1000.0 |
16/2000 |
26 |
43 |
15/1506 |
|
6.89 |
|
|
Tamiami Airport West Kendall (TMB) |
1000.3 |
16/1950 |
25 |
37 |
15/0247 |
|
6.56 |
|
|
Opa-Locka (OPF) |
1000.3 |
16/2247 |
25 |
38 |
15/1547 |
|
|
|
|
Orlando Airport |
1000.3 |
16/2150 |
17 |
27 |
17/0050 |
|
|
|
|
AOML (Virginia Key) |
1001.0 |
16/2200 |
46 |
56 |
15/0540 |
|
6.76 |
|
|
Miami (12245 SW 71 Ct) |
1001.3 |
16/2010 |
25 |
72 |
15/0605 |
|
10.60 |
|
|
Fowey Rocks CMAN |
1001.0 |
16/2000 |
46 b |
54 |
15/0800 |
|
|
|
|
Homestead AFB (HST) |
1001.4 |
16/2055 |
|
|
|
|
13.15 |
|
|
Dry Tortugas CMAN |
1000.4 |
15/1900 |
31 b |
40 |
14/2200 |
|
|
|
|
Daytona Beach |
1001.8 |
16/1930,2100 |
|
|
|
|
0.70 |
|
|
Hialeah (4391 W.9 Ct.) |
1003.7 |
16/1959 |
19 |
30 |
15/0359 |
|
5.19 |
|
|
Saint Augustine CMAN |
1004.8 |
16/2200 |
35 b |
37 |
15/0800 |
|
|
|
Cooperstown
(central Broward County) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
16.10 |
|
Andytown
(central Broward County) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
16.00 |
|
Fort Lauderdale
(Dixie Water Plant) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
14.68 |
|
|
Hollywood |
|
|
|
|
|
|
12.21 |
|
North Dade County
(Norwood Water Plant) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
11.73 |
|
North Miami
(Keystone Point) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
11.09 |
|
|
Boynton Beach |
|
|
|
|
|
|
10.79 |
|
|
Coral Springs |
|
|
|
|
|
|
10.09 |
|
|
Palm Beach Garden |
|
|
|
|
|
|
9.75 |
|
|
West Perrine |
|
|
|
|
|
|
9.50 |
|
|
Boca Raton |
|
|
|
|
|
|
9.14 |
|
|
Sanford |
|
|
|
|
|
|
8.80 |
|
|
Titusville |
|
|
|
|
|
|
8.75 |
|
|
Melbourne NWSO |
|
|
|
|
|
|
8.50 |
|
|
Vero Beach 4W |
|
|
|
|
|
|
8.40 |
|
|
Stuart |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7.95 |
|
|
Belle Glade |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5.68 |
|
|
Orlando MCO |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5.80 |
|
|
Clewiston |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.11 |
|
|
Imolakee |
|
|
|
|
|
|
3.76 |
|
|
Moore Haven |
|
|
|
|
|
|
3.39 |
|
Naples
(Naples Conservatory) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.43 |
|
|
|
|
|
North Carolina |
|
|
Diamond Shoals CMAN |
999.5 |
18/0900 |
62 b |
76 |
18/0700 |
|
|
|
|
Buxton |
1000.2 |
18/1030 |
44 |
50 |
18/1043 |
2.7 |
1.29 |
|
|
MCAS Cherry Point |
1001.3 |
18/0555 |
22 |
34 |
18/1430 |
|
1.12 |
|
|
MCAS New River |
1002.7 |
18/0610 |
23 |
41 |
18/1156 |
|
0.30 |
|
|
WSO Wilmington (ILM) |
1004.5 |
18/1050 |
28 |
36 |
18/1750 |
|
0.15 |
|
NOAA Buoy 41002
(32.3°N 75.2°W) |
992.5 |
19/0100 |
35 d |
36 |
18/2300 |
|
|
|
NOAA Buoy 41001
(34.7°N 77.3°W) |
1002.7 |
18/0300 |
47 d |
63 |
18/0300 |
|
|
|
NOAA Buoy 41004
(32.5°N 79.1°W) |
1004.5 |
17/1000 |
34 d |
44 |
17/1000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bahamas |
|
|
Cockburn, San Salvador |
1000.7 |
14/0000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
NOAA Buoy 41016
(24.6°N 76.5°W) |
1000.7 |
14/0900 |
39 d |
|
14/0000 |
|
|
|
|
Nassau |
|
|
20 |
32 |
13/1500 |
|
|
|
|
Kemp's Bay, Andros |
|
|
40 |
|
14/0000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cuba |
|
|
Guantanamo |
999.0 |
13/0900 |
60 |
104 |
13/0858 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jamaica |
|
|
Kingston |
1002.0 |
13/0429 |
25 |
|
12/2300 |
|
|
|
a Time
of 1-minute wind speed unless only gust is given.
b C-MAN stations
report 2-minute average winds.
c Estimated.
d NOAA
buoys report 8-minute average winds.
Table 2b. Ship encounters of
34 knots or higher winds, Hurricane Gordon, 1994.
Ship
ID |
Date
Mo/Day |
Time
UTC |
Position |
Wind (kt)
Dir/Speed |
Pressure
(mb) |
|
Lat°N |
Lon°W |
|
3EZK9 |
11/13 |
1200 |
22.9 |
72.2 |
020/34 |
1009.0 |
|
3EKI3 |
11/13 |
1200 |
20.5 |
74.2 |
130/35 |
1002.0 |
|
C6HE2 |
11/13 |
1800 |
24.5 |
74.5 |
060/44 |
1004.5 |
|
C6CM7 |
11/13 |
1800 |
25.0 |
75.3 |
080/42 |
1001.7 |
|
C6TV |
11/13 |
1800 |
22.0 |
70.8 |
150/34 |
1004.5 |
|
WZJG |
11/13 |
1800 |
24.3 |
73.3 |
070/35 |
1005.0 |
|
WTL479 |
11/14 |
0000 |
21.8 |
72.3 |
180/39 |
1003.0 |
|
C6TV |
11/14 |
0000 |
23.1 |
72.6 |
150/34 |
1001.4 |
|
ELFT8 |
11/14 |
0000 |
22.9 |
72.5 |
100/35 |
1000.0 |
|
C6CM7 |
11/14 |
0000 |
24.1 |
73.8 |
070/45 |
998.5 |
|
KNJN |
11/14 |
1200 |
25.3 |
79.8 |
050/45 |
1003.0 |
|
WIBK |
11/14 |
1300 |
24.3 |
81.5 |
360/40 |
1018.5 |
|
WIBK |
11/14 |
1600 |
24.5 |
80.8 |
360/40 |
1005.0 |
|
WIBK |
11/14 |
1900 |
24.8 |
80.4 |
040/52 |
1002.9 |
|
WIBK |
11/14 |
2200 |
25.2 |
80.0 |
070/50 |
1005.5 |
|
VRMH |
11/15 |
0000 |
24.2 |
82.3 |
360/40 |
1002.6 |
|
KNJN |
11/15 |
0000 |
26.0 |
78.0 |
050/45 |
1006.0 |
|
VRMH |
11/15 |
0600 |
24.4 |
81.1 |
060/34 |
999.5 |
|
VRMH |
11/15 |
1200 |
25.2 |
79.8 |
120/40 |
1002.9 |
|
SHIP |
11/15 |
1200 |
25.4 |
77.5 |
140/37 |
1007.8 |
|
DGDC |
11/15 |
1500 |
25.4 |
79.9 |
120/42 |
1004.0 |
|
VRMH |
11/15 |
1800 |
26.2 |
79.0 |
130/37 |
1006.8 |
|
DGDC |
11/15 |
1800 |
26.5 |
79.7 |
120/35 |
1006.2 |
|
3EKH3 |
11/15 |
1800 |
24.0 |
79.5 |
160/35 |
1006.0 |
|
ZHEM7 |
11/15 |
2100 |
24.1 |
85.2 |
340/49 |
1005.0 |
|
DGDC |
11/15 |
2100 |
27.6 |
79.7 |
070/40 |
1006.8 |
|
DGDC |
11/16 |
0000 |
28.6 |
79.7 |
080/37 |
1010.2 |
|
ZCAQ |
11/16 |
0000 |
29.9 |
79.7 |
090/34 |
1011.0 |
|
3EKH3 |
11/16 |
0600 |
27.1 |
77.9 |
140/39 |
1006.0 |
|
ZHEM7 |
11/16 |
2100 |
27.3 |
79.7 |
160/58 |
998.0 |
|
OXKT2 |
11/16 |
2100 |
24.6 |
79.6 |
200/36 |
1005.0 |
|
ZHEM7 |
11/17 |
0000 |
28.2 |
79.6 |
140/54 |
996.0 |
|
DGDC |
11/17 |
0600 |
31.9 |
80.2 |
010/41 |
1005.9 |
|
WZJF |
11/17 |
0600 |
28.0 |
78.2 |
200/41 |
993.0 |
|
NNAC |
11/17 |
1200 |
29.0 |
76.0 |
200/45 |
989.5 |
|
SHIP |
11/17 |
1200 |
36.3 |
74.7 |
080/45 |
1012.3 |
|
SHIP |
11/17 |
1200 |
32.2 |
79.2 |
010/42 |
1002.4 |
|
P3QG4 |
11/17 |
1800 |
27.6 |
74.1 |
230/40 |
1002.0 |
|
4XIL |
11/17 |
1800 |
27.7 |
77.5 |
300/35 |
1003.0 |
|
3FJF3 |
11/17 |
1800 |
30.0 |
72.0 |
- /60 |
- |
|
FNPA |
11/17 |
1800 |
30.5 |
79.4 |
350/35 |
1008.0 |
|
WMBQ |
11/17 |
1800 |
|
|
060/37 |
1003.5 |
|
SHIP |
11/17 |
1800 |
37.1 |
75.1 |
070/40 |
- |
|
SHIP |
11/17 |
1800 |
35.2 |
75.2 |
070/45 |
1006.0 |
|
KLHC |
11/17 |
2100 |
32.6 |
71.8 |
140/48 |
1000.3 |
|
LAHE2 |
11/17 |
2100 |
34.0 |
73.5 |
090/35 |
1000.5 |
|
WPVD |
11/17 |
2100 |
32.7 |
78.2 |
360/40 |
1001.0 |
|
ELUI |
11/17 |
2100 |
34.0 |
76.5 |
050/38 |
1010.1 |
|
VRIU |
11/18 |
0000 |
34.2 |
71.8 |
080/44 |
1003.2 |
|
WPPO |
11/18 |
0000 |
33.5 |
72.2 |
120/68 |
1002.5 |
|
KLHC |
11/18 |
0000 |
33.4 |
72.3 |
110/68 |
998.8 |
|
LAHE2 |
11/18 |
0000 |
33.8 |
74.4 |
040/58 |
990.0 |
|
X |
11/18 |
0000 |
34.2 |
76.2 |
- /50 |
1002.8 |
|
DGDC |
11/18 |
0000 |
32.5 |
75.1 |
360/42 |
994.2 |
|
NNAC |
11/18 |
0000 |
31.2 |
78.1 |
350/35 |
1002.4 |
|
LAHE2 |
11/18 |
0300 |
33.3 |
75.2 |
040/58 |
987.0 |
|
DGDC |
11/18 |
0300 |
32.2 |
74.4 |
230/45 |
994.1 |
|
WLDW |
11/18 |
0300 |
36.5 |
74.9 |
110/37 |
1001.9 |
|
VRIU |
11/18 |
0300 |
34.0 |
71.7 |
070/52 |
1002.7 |
|
SHIP |
11/18 |
0300 |
32.0 |
79.3 |
360/45 |
1007.5 |
|
VRIU |
11/18 |
0600 |
33.8 |
71.9 |
090/44 |
1002.8 |
|
WLDW |
11/18 |
1200 |
34.6 |
76.0 |
100/55 |
999.5 |
|
LAHE2 |
11/18 |
1500 |
32.3 |
77.4 |
320/52 |
1003.0 |
|
WTEZ |
11/18 |
1500 |
34.6 |
76.6 |
020/34 |
1001.3 |
|
WLDW |
11/18 |
1500 |
34.1 |
76.8 |
250/60 |
999.6 |
|
P3QG |
11/18 |
1800 |
30.8 |
78.0 |
270/40 |
1005.0 |
|
WLDW |
11/18 |
1800 |
33.4 |
77.4 |
330/55 |
999.9 |
|
LAHE2 |
11/18 |
1800 |
32.4 |
78.0 |
320/40 |
1003.0 |
|
NRKN |
11/18 |
1800 |
33.9 |
76.6 |
040/35 |
997.0 |
|
WZJD |
11/18 |
2100 |
37.4 |
71.4 |
140/45 |
1012.5 |
|
WLDW |
11/18 |
2100 |
33.0 |
78.0 |
320/40 |
1100.4 |
|
WLDW |
11/19 |
0000 |
32.4 |
78.8 |
340/40 |
- |
|
P3QG |
11/19 |
0000 |
31.7 |
79.0 |
330/36 |
1007.2 |
|
OXKT2 |
11/19 |
0600 |
33.0 |
77.9 |
350/38 |
1009.0 |
|
OXKT2 |
11/19 |
1500 |
34.9 |
75.3 |
360/36 |
1016.0 |
|
4XIL |
11/19 |
1800 |
32.7 |
78.2 |
040/35 |
1018.0 |
|
DHIO |
11/20 |
0000 |
30.1 |
78.1 |
360/45 |
1011.4 |
Table 3a. Hurricane Gordon average
official track forecast errors, excluding the tropical depression
stage, in nautical miles.
|
|
forecast period (hours) |
|
0 |
12 |
24 |
36 |
48 |
72 |
|
Gordon |
17 |
68 |
134 |
203 |
259 |
332 |
|
(number of cases) |
(38) |
(36) |
(34) |
(32) |
(30) |
(26) |
|
1984-1993 Atlantic average |
17 |
52 |
101 |
|
199 |
302 |
Table 3b. Hurricane Gordon average
track model forecast errors, excluding the tropical depression
stage, in nautical miles. This is a non-homogeneous comparison.
|
Model |
Forecast Period (hours) |
|
Model |
Forecast Period (hours) |
|
12 |
24 |
36 |
48 |
72 |
|
12 |
24 |
36 |
48 |
72 |
AVNI
(number of cases) |
117 |
217 |
312 |
403 |
496 |
|
A90E
(number of cases) |
79 |
146 |
223 |
317 |
374 |
|
(24) |
(24) |
(22) |
(22) |
(14) |
|
(36) |
(34) |
(32) |
(30) |
(26) |
BAMD
(number of cases) |
60 |
100 |
161 |
217 |
394 |
|
CLIPER
(number of cases) |
87 |
181 |
282 |
375 |
425 |
|
(36) |
(34) |
(32) |
(30) |
(26) |
|
(35) |
(33) |
(31) |
(29) |
(25) |
GFDI
(number of cases) |
83 |
158 |
203 |
241 |
283 |
|
QLMI
(number of cases) |
108 |
218 |
408 |
451 |
593 |
|
(30) |
(28) |
(25) |
(25) |
(23) |
|
(34) |
(32) |
(30) |
(28) |
(24) |
VBAR
(number of cases) |
79 |
142 |
209 |
287 |
348 |
|
|
|
(33) |
(33) |
(32) |
(30) |
(26) |
|
Table 4. Watch and warning
summary, Hurricane Gordon.
Date/Time
(UTC) |
Action |
Location |
|
12/0300 |
Tropical Storm Watch Issued |
Jamaica |
|
12/0900 |
Tropical Storm Warning Issued and
Tropical Storm Watch Discontinued |
Jamaica |
|
12/1500 |
Tropical Storm Warning Issued |
South Coast of Cuba from Camaguey through Guantanamo |
|
13/0900 |
Tropical Storm Warning Issued |
Southwest Peninsula of Haiti |
|
13/1200 |
Tropical Storm Warning Discontin. |
Jamaica |
|
13/1500 |
Tropical Storm Warning Issued |
Southeast and Central Bahamas Southeast of Eluethera |
|
Tropical Storm Warning Discontin. |
Southwest Peninsula of Haiti |
|
13/2100 |
Tropical Storm Warning Extended |
Remainder of the Bahamas |
|
14/0000 |
Tropical Storm Warning Discontin. |
Cuba |
|
14/0900 |
Tropical Storm Warning Issued |
Florida Southeast Coast and Keys from Jupiter Inlet southward
to the Dry Tortugas |
|
14/1500 |
Tropical Storm Warning Issued |
Florida West Coast from Boca Grande southward Including Florida
Bay and Lake Okeechobee |
|
Tropical Storm Warning Issued |
Northwest Bahamas from Eluethera Westward |
|
Tropical Storm Warning Discontin. |
Bahamas (south)east of Eluethera (and the Turks and Caicos Islands) |
|
14/2100 |
Tropical Storm Warning Issued |
Bimini and Grand Bahama |
|
Tropical Storm Warning Discontin. |
Bahamas except Bimini and Grand Bahama (and Abacos) |
|
15/1500 |
Tropical Storm Warning Extended |
Florida West Coast from Boca Grande to Longboat Key |
|
Tropical Storm Watch Issued |
Florida West Coast from Longboat Key northward to Bayport |
|
15/2100 |
Tropical Storm Warning Extended |
Florida East coast from Titusville southward and on the Florida
West Coast southward from Bayport Including Tampa Bay |
|
Tropical Storm Watch Discontinued |
Florida west coast from Longboat Key northward to Bayport |
|
Tropical Storm Warning Discontin. |
Bimini and Grand Bahama |
|
16/1500 |
Tropical Storm Warning Discontin. |
Florida West Coast north of Venice |
|
16/1800 |
Tropical Storm Warning Discontin. |
Florida West Coast north of Flamingo |
|
16/2100 |
Tropical Storm Warning Discontin. |
Florida West Coast and Keys from Key Largo southward and Florida
Bay and Lake Okeechobee |
|
17/0000 |
Tropical Storm Warning Discontin. |
Florida |
|
17/0300 |
Tropical Storm Warning Discontin. |
Bahamas |
|
18/0500 |
Hurricane Warning Issued |
North Carolina Coast from the North Carolina-Virginia Border
Southward to Bogue Inlet including Albermarle and Pamlico Sounds |
|
18/2100 |
Hurricane Warning Discontinued |
North Carolina |
Table 5. Chance of the center of Gordon passing within 65 miles of
listed locations by date and time (EDT) indicated;
probabilities in percent with X for less than 2 percent.
ADVISORY ISSUE TIME: 09/5AM 09/11AM 09/5PM 09/11PM 10/5AM
PROBABILITY END TIME: 12/2AM 12/8AM 12/2PM 12/8PM 13/2AM
MKJS 185N 779W 2 5 4 4 5
MWCG 193N 814W 7 12 10 11 10
MUCF 221N 805W 3 6 6 6 5
MUSN 216N 826W 6 10 9 9 8
MUHA 230N 824W 4 7 7 7 5
MUAN 219N 850W 8 11 10 11 8
MMCZ 205N 869W 12 13 12 13 11
MZBZ 175N 883W 17 13 13 14 13
MGPB 157N 886W 17 11 11 11 11
MHNJ 165N 859W 21 20 20 21 20
MNPC 141N 834W 36 47 99 99 99
MNBL 120N 839W 99 36 21 15 11
SKSP 126N 817W 39 99 18 12 13
MRLM 100N 831W 5 2 5 5 5
MPCO 093N 799W 2 X 2 2 3
MMVR 192N 961W 2 X X X X
MMFR 185N 926W 8 4 2 3 3
MMMD 210N 897W 11 9 7 8 7
MUCM 214N 779W X 4 3 3 3
MKJP 179N 768W X 4 2 3 4
MYAK 241N 776W X 2 X X X
KEY WEST FL 2 5 4 4 3
GULF 28N 89W 2 2 X 2 X
GULF 28N 91W 2 2 X X X
MARATHON FL X 4 3 3 3
MARCO ISLAND FL X 3 2 2 2
FT MYERS FL X 2 2 2 X
VENICE FL X 2 2 2 X
TAMPA FL X 2 X X X
GULF 29N 87W X 2 X X X
MIAMI FL X 2 2 2 X
W PALM BEACH FL X 2 X X X
ADVISORY ISSUE TIME: 10/5PM 10/11PM 11/5AM 11/11AM 11/5PM
PROBABILITY END TIME: 13/2PM 13/8PM 14/2AM 14/8AM 14/2PM
MKJS 185N 779W 11 12 16 15 24
MWCG 193N 814W 17 18 22 24 30
MUCF 221N 805W 11 12 14 15 15
MUSN 216N 826W 13 13 13 15 8
MUHA 230N 824W 10 10 11 12 7
MUAN 219N 850W 9 9 7 8 3
MMCZ 205N 869W 6 7 4 3 X
MZBZ 175N 883W 4 4 2 X X
MGPB 157N 886W 3 3 X X X
MHNJ 165N 859W 10 10 6 4 X
MNPC 141N 834W 38 16 9 6 2
MNBL 120N 839W 8 8 3 2 X
SKSP 126N 817W 14 11 7 5 X
MRLM 100N 831W 5 4 X X X
MPCO 093N 799W 4 2 X X X
MMMD 210N 897W 2 2 X X X
MUCM 214N 779W 9 10 13 13 24
MKJP 179N 768W 9 9 13 12 16
MYAK 241N 776W 5 6 9 9 16
MYSM 241N 745W 2 3 6 6 15
MYEG 235N 758W 4 5 8 8 17
MUGM 200N 751W 5 6 9 9 16
MYNN 251N 775W 4 5 7 8 14
MYGF 266N 787W 3 4 5 6 8
MTCA 183N 738W 3 3 7 6 10
MTPP 186N 724W 2 2 4 4 8
MYMM 224N 730W 2 2 5 5 14
MDCB 176N 714W X X 3 3 5
MDPP 198N 707W X X 3 2 7
MBJT 215N 712W X X 3 3 10
MDSD 185N 697W X X 2 X 4
KEY WEST FL 7 8 8 10 6
GULF 28N 89W X X X X X
GULF 28N 91W X X X X X
MARATHON FL 7 7 8 10 8
MARCO ISLAND FL 5 5 5 7 4
FT MYERS FL 4 4 4 6 3
VENICE FL 3 3 3 5 2
TAMPA FL 2 2 2 4 2
GULF 29N 87W X X X X X
MIAMI FL 5 6 6 8 7
W PALM BEACH FL 3 4 5 6 6
FT PIERCE FL 3 3
