As America moves into the 21st century, our domestic security and global competitiveness will depend strongly on the types of capabilities, services and products delivered by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Because of NOAA investments in science and technology, the U.S. now enjoys the benefits of the most advanced weather and climate prediction system in the world. NOAA conducts research to develop new technologies, improve operations, and supply the scientific basis for managing natural resources and solving environmental problems. NOAA's comprehensive system for acquiring observationsCfrom satellites to ships to radarsCprovides the quality data and information critical to the safe conduct of daily life and the basic functioning of a modern economy. This national infrastructure, and the talented people who design and deliver it, supports commonly needed end products like nautical and aeronautical charts, fisheries statistics, daily weather warnings and forecasts, and oil spill response information.
At the same time, budget constraints mean that many Federal agencies will encounter dramatically fewer dollars and people, yet equal or greater challenges. As of early 1996, Federal employment has dropped nearly 190,000 in response to the President's streamlining initiative. The 104th Congress has terminated some agencies outright, and has confined funding for many programs to levels below FY 1995. Even with flat budgets, inflation erodes the working power of agencies by about three percent annually. In such an environment, agencies must affirm their missions, discontinue doing things which are not a Federal role, or find more effective ways to conduct work. For NOAA, change presents challenge, and challenge creates opportunity. The FY 1997 NOAA budget addresses both.
This proposed budget maintains an appropriate balance among the
environmental assessment and prediction and environmental stewardship
needs of the Nation. Compared with the FY 1997 base, the FY 1997
budget provides increases of: $71.5 million to ensure that weather
service modernization remains on track; and $55 million for satellite
acquisition, convergence of civilian and military polar-orbiting
satellites, and environmental observing services. NOAA requests
an additional $2.9 million in high performance computing for advancing
weather forecasts and other applications, $9.6 million for climate
and global change research, including climate prediction and operational
applications, and $3 million for the Health of the Atmosphere
program to provide a sounder, more economical basis for implementing
the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990. The President's commitment
to restore the wealth of America's fisheries and protect species
in danger of extinction is strengthened with an additional $16.6
million for research, analysis and the implementation of fishery
management programs and endangered species recovery plans. For
NOAA's ocean and coastal programs, an increase of $11 million
is needed to maintain and improve efforts in geodesy, natural
resource damage assessments, coastal ocean science, non-point
pollution control, and acquisition of estuarine reserves. The
request also includes new funds for NOAA to conduct research and
restoration activities as part of the Vice President's initiative
in South Florida and the Everglades. This budget strongly supports
the President's investment priorities for NOAA, as well as providing
for statutory obligations.
The challenge of investing strategically in the nation's future
now is accompanied by the requirement to be more effective, to
identify and realize opportunities for savings and to focus the
efforts of Government on what matters to people. Performance is
what counts, and the FY 1997 budget includes measures which track
results to the level of investment. NOAA's budget advances the
implementation of reinvention initiatives which are expected to
save an estimated $16.5 million in FY 1997, and over $1 billion
by the middle of the next decade. Success in this changing world
increasingly will depend on partnerships with business and industry,
universities, state and local governments, and international parties.
Partnerships promote the leveraging of resources and talent, and
often provide the means for meeting program requirements more
effectively because of the mutual benefit involved.
NOAA's mission is to monitor, describe and predict changes in the Earth's environment, protect lives and property, and conserve and manage the Nation's coastal and marine resources to ensure sustainable economic opportunities. This mission involves basic government responsibilities for ensuring general public safety, national security and environmental well-being, and promoting economic growth. The successful execution of this mission depends on adequate funding for, and synergism among, component activities of NOAA. NOAA plays a key role in a Department whose structure further encourages the integration of economics, environmental stewardship, technology and information.
NOAA's services typically require highly concentrated investments but yield widely-dispersed benefits. These services affect the lives of nearly every citizen every day. If government's purpose is to provide for the common good, then NOAA's work represents a wise and appropriate investment by the taxpayer. NOAA's goals are national goals, with national benefits. They include:
The Nation continues to experience the benefits brought by National Weather Service (NWS) modernization. Deployment of advanced technologies has resulted in dramatic improvements in public service and the level of safety preparedness. The NWS was challenged with forecasting many significant and unprecedented weather events over the last year. For example, the NWS was instrumental in providing several days advance warning for the ABlizzard of 1996,@ and projected the storm's size, intensity and duration with great precision. Acting on these forecasts, the airlines were able to move their planes from airports prior to the storm, thus avoiding costly downtime. The NWS' outstanding performance during the December, 1995, Pacific Northwest severe weather events gave the public and emergency management officials advance warning to prepare for these unusual and damaging storms. In addition, NOAA's new Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab GFDL hurricane model, implemented in June 1995, played a vital role in forecasting the movement of hurricanes in one of the most active tropical storm seasons since 1933. Advanced tracking and forecasting techniques helped reduce the over-warning of coastal areas, saving more than $5 million per storm, and minimizing the loss of human life and personal property.
For severe weather such as tornadoes, thunderstorms and flash floods, case studies have documented the impact of new technologies on safety. Bieringer and Ray (1995) found that the average lead time for tornado warnings increased from eight to thirteen minutes following availability of Next Generation Weather Radars (NEXRADs), and that the accuracy of tornado warnings increased from 42 to 63 percent. As NEXRADs continue to be installed nationwide, and as research findings are applied to enhance the effectiveness of this NOAA-developed technology, further service improvements in lead time and accuracy will be realized.
The provision of weather warnings and forecasts is a unique public good. Only the Federal government has the infrastructure and personnel to perform uniform warning and forecast functions on a consistent basis and national scale. With a growing population, the U.S. is becoming more vulnerable to environmental hazards and catastrophic loss. Losses from severe weather between 1991 and 1993 were 1,071 deaths and $73 billion in damages. The scientific and capital investment required for NWS modernizationCincluding radars and satellites, advanced computer models and communications systems, and field restructuringCis paying off with lives saved, property damages avoided, and impacts mitigated for weather-sensitive sectors of the economy.
In 1995, NOAA began issuing monthly and seasonal probability outlooks for temperature and rainfall for up to a year in advance. Climate-sensitive sectors of the economy will accrue benefits from these new Aclimate forecasts.@ The Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission estimates that the economic benefits of these forecasts approach $1 billion per year across all economic sectors. In addition, the insurance industry has become increasingly vocal in its support of the essential science underlying climate prediction, due to the tremendous economic impact of weather-related natural disasters. According to the Worldwatch Institute's 1996 State of the World report, since 1990, insurance providers worldwide have paid out $48 billion for weather-related losses, compared with losses of $14 billion for the entire decade of the 1980s.
Emerging capabilities to forecast climate are the result of Federal investments in basic research, development and deployment of global observing and data systems, and transition of research findings to operational needs. Recent NOAA research has shown that climate variations are in fact becoming more extreme. The future capacity to deliver uniform climate information will depend strongly on Federal resources for continuing process and modeling research, and for the collection of data needed to initialize and validate climate models. NOAA's immediate goal is to introduce an operational program for the systematic production and application of regionally tailored guidance and climatological forecasts. Using accurate climate information, farmers can plant and irrigate more intelligently, managers can regulate water resources in anticipation of drought or flood conditions, and energy companies can prepare distribution networks to most efficiently supply points of expected demand. The ability to deliver effective climate services will be as important to 21st century economies and societies as weather forecasting is today.
In collaboration with university, government and international partners, NOAA provides the measurements, research, models and assessments that form the scientific basis for understanding global change phenomena. Through long-term monitoring, NOAA has produced evidence that carbon dioxide is increasing in the atmosphere. Late in 1995, the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the international body charged with assessing climate change phenomena and formulating management response strategies, released findings indicating that temperature may increase 1 to 3.5 degrees Celsius, and sea level may rise 50 to 95 centimeters, by the year 2100. These global trends will affect both natural processes and human systems, including agriculture, energy, and the worldwide transmission of diseases.
NOAA played a lead role in developing the science assessments upon which the IPCC report was based. Decisions on actions to mitigate anticipated changes on the order of decades to centuries will never receive domestic and international backing unless they are supported by sound science. Alternatively, a failure to conduct the research needed to characterize the potential for global change will leave societies and economies ill-prepared to deal with real impacts, should they occur. NOAA works to provide science-based options for these types of decisionsCfocusing on climate change and greenhouse warming, ozone layer depletion, and air quality improvement. For example, NOAA is assisting industry in the selection of Aozone-layer friendly@ substitutes for chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). Without research to evaluate the impact on the atmosphere of proposed CFC substitutes, industry could spend millions of dollars to bring a substitute to market, only to find later that it depletes stratospheric ozone.
The barge North Cape grounding and resultant oil spill of January 19, 1996, and Exxon Valdez before it, illustrate the catastrophic nature of some maritime accidents. Seagoing commerce has tripled in the last 50 years, and 98 percent of our international trade by weight moves through U.S. ports. Fifty percent of the total tonnage is oil or other hazardous material. A 1990 publication of the Natural Resources Defense Council states that from 1980 to 1988, tankers were involved in 839 moving accidents, 55 fires and explosions, and 95 deaths. Despite the risk that accompanies increasing traffic, and the competitive advantage of modern observations and systems, much of the nation's charting and geodetic infrastructure is not up to world standards. For instance, over 60 percent of nautical charting data were obtained before 1940 using antiquated technology, and two-thirds of the data used for tidal predictions are more than 40 years old. The existing geodetic reference frame is obsolete.
Accurate charts and modern navigation systems are required for safe and efficient maritime and air transport. NOAA collects, processes and distributes such information in support of national, commercial and individual needs. NOAA is working to revolutionize U.S. marine and air navigation, mapping and surveying, and to provide a precise satellite-derived reference system as the basis for the nation's 21st century positioning needs. During 1995, NOAA's National Ocean Service acquired and processed 50 hydrographic surveys, completed 200 new nautical chart editions, digitized 75 surveys in support of new electronic navigation systems, installed a real-time oceanographic monitoring system in San Francisco Bay, and implemented 25 of the planned 100 stations that will form the basic positional framework for the nation's future spatial data infrastructure.
In 1994, the Secretary of Commerce authorized unprecedented measures to avoid the total collapse of the New England groundfish fishery. Actions taken to stabilize the fishery have been accompanied by Federal and state economic assistance efforts in affected communities. Further regulatory and assistance measures are expected during this year in an effort to restore vitality to this historic fishery.
There is a strong consensus among lawmakers, fishery managers, the fishing industry and the public, that depleted fishery resources must be restored and healthy fisheries must be maintained and managed for greater efficiency. Of the U.S. fishery resources for which population status is known, 33 percent are overutilized and 49 percent are fully utilized. Even fisheries that are producing a large catch are doing so with unnecessary cost and waste. Rebuilding and maintaining fisheries will promote the economic and biologic sustainability of fishery resources, and assist the fishing industry in becoming more competitive internationally. Well-managed fisheries produce significant and continuous benefits, such as the $1 billion Alaskan groundfish fishery. NOAA estimates that restoring fisheries will have a potential $25 billion total positive impact on the national economy.
NOAA's National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) is providing the Federal leadership and support to make this happen. Accurate and timely resource assessments are being used to guide management decisions, and guarantee conservation of fisheries for the common good. NMFS, the Coastal Ocean Program, the National Sea Grant College Program and other parts of NOAA, are conducting research to advance fishery predictions, reduce costs of conventional stock assessments and improve fishery habitat. Enforcement is carried out to ensure compliance with regulations, and NOAA is working with state and international partners to develop policies for managing fisheries that occupy multiple geopolitical zones. In addition, NOAA is assisting with the design and implementation of measures to reduce overfishing and capital investment, including the application of harvest capacity reduction programs.
During 1995, NMFS implemented emergency sea turtle conservation measures in the southeastern U.S. shrimp fishery, which included reasonable and prudent alternatives to closing the fishery. This type of action illustrates NOAA's commitment to protect and recover endangered species in a manner compatible with the sustainable use of marine resources. NMFS is working to assess the status of threatened and endangered marine species, and is developing and implementing conservation and recovery plans to restore these species to healthy population levels.
There are compelling economic, biological and cultural reasons for ensuring the preservation of marine biodiversity. Finding ways to reduce interactions between protected species and human activities can mean the difference between proceeding with, or halting economic growth. By conserving living marine resources, NOAA enhances economic and cultural opportunities for future generations.
When the barge North Cape grounded off Rhode Island, nearly a million gallons of oil bled into coastal waters. Thousands of dead lobsters washed up on shore and an extensive area was closed to fishing. As a trustee for the nation's coastal resources, NOAA supported Federal and state response efforts by providing information on weather and tides, oil spill trajectories, natural resources at risk, and priority areas for protection. NOAA led Federal and state efforts to assess damages and restore natural resources to their pre-spill conditions. During all of 1995, NOAA supported rapid response operations at about 70 spills.
While response, assessment and restoration actions are critical to coastal health, NOAA's wider stewardship role focuses on prevention and sustainable use. This is an enormous challenge considering that well over half of the U.S. population lives on the 10 percent of land defined as coastal, and coastal counties are growing more rapidly than inland counties. Coastal concerns require integrated solutions because problems transcend state and natural boundaries. Successful management of these biologically, geographically and economically complex areas depends strongly on Federal guidance and collaboration.
NOAA programs in monitoring, research, modeling, assessment and information delivery provide the scientific basis for measures designed to prevent harm to coastal ecosystems while allowing sustainable development. NOAA's Coastal Zone Management Program provides financial and technical support in a Federal-state partnership to manage coastal resources, minimize development risks, and unify coastal policies across states. Prior to Hurricane Opal's destructive landfall in Florida, NOAA had been supporting state efforts to prepare implementation plans for a post-storm redevelopment policy for beach front areas. Application of this policy in the aftermath of Opal has ensured that redevelopment of the Florida shoreline will minimize risks from future storms.
In an environment of tightening dollars and increasingly complex challenges, NOAA is reducing costs and improving program effectiveness. NOAA is saving money through streamlining personnel and processes, outsourcing where appropriate, and leveraging external resources and talent. NOAA holds managers accountable for results, and for using performance measures to validate progress. The highest priority continues to be to ensure that critical services are well provided. As a case in point, a May 1995, Atlanta Journal Constitution survey of public attitudes toward government found that among 15 Federal agencies, AYonly the armed forces and the National Weather Service floated above the prevailing cynicism.@
In an effort to create a government that works better and costs less, NOAA is reinventing itself by achieving the goals outlined in the National Performance Review (NPR). Weather service modernization, begun well before the NPR, is reinvention in the making. Owing to the range and effectiveness of new technologies, the NWS is realigning its field structure to reduce the number of offices from over 300 to 119. A National Institute of Standards and Technology study shows that every dollar spent on weather service modernization buys eight dollars in benefits for the taxpayer. The scientific and technological basis for this modernization has been provided by NOAA's own research and development capabilities, which now are being applied to maximize the benefits from the new systems. As a result, the U.S. now commands the most modern and efficient weather service in the world. A brief status of other NOAA NPR initiatives follows:
Streamlining personnel and processes. By 1999, NOAA will reduce its workforce by 16 percent from 1993 levels. This will require the elimination of 2,318 full-time equivalents (FTEs) through phased annual reductions in the NOAA Streamlining Plan (see graph at left). Approximately 74 percent of the total FTE reduction will be achieved in administrative and supervisory categories. By 1999, NOAA will increase its supervisory ratio by 78 percent to a ratio of 13.2 employees per supervisor. Organizational layers will be reduced from seven to four. NOAA has simplified administrative processes, delegated authorities downward, and made progress toward implementing the Commerce Administrative Management System, which will greatly improve financial management and accountability.
Converging satellites. NOAA is working with the Department of Defense to merge civilian and defense weather satellites, saving an estimated $1 billion over the program life. Phase Zero contracts for the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System were recently completed.
Eliminating the NOAA Corps. The NOAA Commissioned Corps was downsized in FY 1995 from 403 to 374 active officers, and further downsizing is planned. NOAA intends to eliminate the Corps effective April 1, 1997, following a six month transition to a civilian work force. Legislation is required to effect this change, which will involve transition costs that currently are being developed. NPR savings are estimated at $35 million by 1999.
Closing NWS field offices. In order to expedite closure of about 200 NWS field offices, NOAA proposes to amend P.L. 102-567, the law governing weather service modernization. The proposed amendments will streamline certification provisions related to the restructuring and closure of weather service offices. Potential savings are estimated at $35 million between FY 1997 and FY 2002. The FY 1997 budget includes $7.4 million in savings from these streamlining activities.
Privatizing specialized weather services. NOAA is proceeding with privatization of specialized weather services including agriculture, fruit frost, fire weather for non-Federal land management, and regional climate centers, and is continuing to work with the private sector to look for other opportunities. The FY 1997 budget includes a reduction of $2.6 million for additional privatization efforts. Specifically, the NWS will transfer special outdoor event forecasting services to the private sector.
Expanding private sector ship support. NOAA is expanding the use of private contractors for ship support, and collecting information to assess private sector interest, capability and cost for meeting requirements. NOAA has completed contracts for hydrographic surveys, and is continuing this effort during FY 1996. Two hydrographic survey ships were decommissioned in FY 1995. It is intended that the private sector collect 50 percent of the minimum days at sea for the National Ocean Service. Ship charters have been used to obtain fisheries survey support and to backfill the Delaware II. A chartered vessel currently is performing the Antarctic Marine Living Resources Project. In FY 1997, up to half a year on UNOLS vessels will replace the Discoverer, which will be laid up at the end of FY 1996.
Transforming charting and geodesy. The National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA) is analyzing the structure, outputs and financing of NOAA units providing nautical charting and geodesy services to determine how transforming this function to a performance-oriented business may improve service and reduce costs. NAPA will produce recommendations during 1996.
Transforming seafood inspection. NOAA is reviewing options to transform the seafood inspection service ranging from a government performance-based organization to a private, nonprofit organization. Transformation of this fee-funded activity likely would not save costs, but may reduce Federal personnel requirements.
Improving fisheries management. In cooperation with the fishing industry, NOAA has implemented access controls for 20 of 34 Fishery Management Plans, and is working with stakeholders to establish user fees for individual fishing quotas to transfer some management and enforcement costs to commercial beneficiaries.
NOAA has institutionalized a strategic planning process that defines and validates its business activities, guides the development of implementation, operating and SES performance plans, and forms the basis for management decisions. The Strategic Plan provides the framework for articulating and organizing the agency's goals and work objectives. NOAA's goals for the future will enhance opportunities for our citizens, the health of the U.S. economy, the protection of our environment, and the sustainable use of our natural resources.
NOAA has made the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) operational following strong participation as a pilot agency. During the pilot period, NOAA was selected by the Office of Management and Budget as one of ten exemplars and was commended by NAPA's GPRA review panel. NOAA views the GPRA as a management tool to facilitate decision-making. NOAA has integrated performance measures into its planning, budgeting, and management review cycles, and is designing a program evaluation process to measure agency-wide progress toward meeting goals.
NOAA builds partnerships with universities; international, Federal, state and local entities; industries and businesses; and groups and individuals to address common needs and leverage resources. For example:
NOAA works with the fishing industry to ensure sustainable fishing opportunities. The Fishery Management Councils are an innovative partnership bringing resource managers and fishing interests to the same table to address concerns. NMFS' novel Fix-It Program is an alternative enforcement mechanism that helps fishers voluntarily correct technical violations in lieu of paying a fine. Fishing family assistance centers have been established in New England, staffed by Federal, state and community participants, to provide one-stop shopping for economic and technical assistance to distressed fishermen. With Federal support, Pacific Northwest fishermen are restoring natural habitat critical to the recovery of salmon stocks and, in turn, the industry.
NOAA depends on universities to help accomplish science objectives in its mission areas. For example, NOAA and university scientists collaborate on severe weather, climate, and fisheries research via a network of Joint and Cooperative Institutes at universities, and through the National Research Council's Post-Doctoral Investigator Program. NOAA also funds academic researchers through competitive, peer-reviewed programs, including the Climate and Global Change Program, Coastal Ocean Program, the National Estuarine Research Reserve System and the National Sea Grant College Program. The Sea Grant program in research, education and outreach extends the partnership to coastal industry and local and state governments. NOAA has established two new cooperative institutes in the past two years (at the universities of Alaska and Nevada) and has launched the Sea Grant Industrial Fellows program to promote interactions between academia and industry. Despite reductions to FY 1996 research funding and the inability to plan for programs due to budget uncertainties, NOAA has established a policy to maintain current proportions of in-house and extramural research.
Through cooperative efforts with other nations, NOAA is improving access to space technologies and reducing costs of data collection. This includes the joint Canadian/NASA/NOAA RADARSAT program, and the planned EUMETSAT/DoD/NOAA next generation polar-orbiting satellites. International leadership and collaboration also help ensure the conservation of living marine resources, especially straddling fish stocks and endangered marine species.
Weather and climate services are provided to the public and industry through a unique partnership between the NWS and the private meteorological sector. The NWS provides forecasts and warnings for public safety, and the private sector promotes dissemination of forecasts and the tailoring of basic information for business uses. This balance is a fundamental strength of the partnership, and has enabled the private meteorological sector to grow to an over $200 million industry.
NOAA and 31 coastal states work together in a unique state-Federal partnership to ensure safe and sustainable coastal zone development. NOAA provides technical assistance and financial support for development and implementation of state coastal zone management plans. The plans are designed to promote land-use planning which reduces loss of life and property from coastal storms, maintains strong economies by enabling waterfront redevelopment, and maintains the healthy coastal ecosystems that communities depend on for fishing and recreation.
NOAA is working with DoD to utilize previously classified intelligence assets. NOAA and university scientists recently unveiled a new map of the ocean floor based on declassified satellite radar altimeter data. The map documents previously unidentified ocean features, including some which may yield new fishing ventures. Opportunities may exist to apply other DoD assets to environmental monitoring, such as the Integrated Undersea Surveillance System and over-the-horizon radar.