FY 1999 Budget Request of the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration

 

1994 act.

1995 act.

1996 act.

1997 act.

1998 est.

1999 est.

Dynamic forecast model

operational (%)

 

 

 

25

 

 

 

50

 

 

 

50

 

 

 

50

 

 

 

55

 

 

 

55

ENSO Forecasts

Accuracy (correlation) 1/

Lead time (years) 2/

 

 

 

.80

.50

 

 

 

.76

.50

 

 

 

.85

.50

 

 

 

.81

.50

 

 

 

.81

.50

 

 

 

.81

.50

U.S. Temperature

Skill score (%) 3/

Lead time (years)

 

 

 

12

.25

 

 

 

11

.50

 

 

 

14

.50

 

 

 

19

.50

 

 

 

20

.50

 

 

 

20

.50

ENSO observing system

operational (%)

 

 

 

--

 

 

 

--

 

 

 

0

 

 

 

0

 

 

 

50

 

 

 

75

New and Improved data sets developed and produced (#)

 

 

 

--

 

 

 

--

 

 

 

7

 

 

 

7

 

 

 

12

 

 

 

12

Continental Scale International

Project experiments implemented (%)

 

 

 

--

 

 

 

--

 

 

 

20

 

 

 

40

 

 

 

40

 

 

 

60

GOALS experiments implemented (%)

--

--

5

15

15

20

1/ Accuracy is the pattern correlation of the forecast relative to actual conditions.

2/ Lead time is measured in years (e.g. 0.25 is one season).

3/ Skill score means 100 times the number of correct forecasts divided by the number of forecasts made (N), with adjustments for those cases where the actual conditions are equal to the climatological or random-choice expectation (E).