U.S. Weather Research Program
What is requested?
NOAA's Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) requests an increase of $2.2 million, from a base of $1.5 million, for the U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP). The program will work towards extending the forecasts of the location and intensity of hurricanes out to five days in advance of their arrival. In addition, the program will help improve the accuracy and lead time of heavy precipitation which often leads to flooding. Currently, there is little or no skill in precipitation forecasts beyond 24 hours. Advanced warning will give residents more time to prepare, such as sandbagging, boarding up, and evacuating, in an attempt to minimize the damage from potential floods and to avoid a repeat of the tremendous flood damage from past hurricanes. Greater forecast accuracy will also generate savings by narrowing the length of coastline along which mitigation efforts need to be undertaken. The line item is contained under the Atmospheric Programs subactivity of the OAR budget.
Why do we need it?
As millions of Americans move to coastal areas, the U.S. population becomes increasingly vulnerable to the effects of a major hurricane landfall along the East or Gulf Coasts of the United States. Inland flooding following hurricane landfall is also becoming more devastating as Americans continue the trend of building new homes and businesses in low-lying flood plains. For example, in 1999, rain from Hurricane Floyd caused 14 states to declare major disasters. The Raleigh (N.C.) News & Observer reported that inland flooding in North Carolina alone caused over $250 million in housing damages. Hurricane Floyd continued to ripple through the economy due to closed businesses and sky-rocketing unemployment rates. In all, 48 people died and damages went into the billions.
NOAA, in cooperation with NASA, NSF, the Navy, and the university community, under the auspices of the Weather Research Program, is improving its ability to forecast and predict the location and intensity of hurricanes and heavy precipitation. The U.S. Weather Research Program conducts research and development on experimental numerical weather prediction algorithms, provides field observational support, and strives for information and technology transfer to operations and services to improve overall forecast performance. NOAA also operates aircraft and satellites to gather information used for modeling and prediction of heavy precipitation and severe storms.
What will we do?
The Weather Research Program will conduct the research required to significantly improve the forecasts of hurricane landfalls and potential inland flooding so that coastal residents can be better protected from future hurricanes. Through a joint science plan, the initiative leverages resources between NOAA, NASA, NSF, and the Navy. Key to this initiative is a thorough understanding of the internal processes within hurricanes and their interactions with the immediate environment that control their intensity, propagation, speed, and direction. The program presently focuses on hurricane forecasting, along with research applied to improving precipitation forecasts for other types of severe storms. It will also conduct research to identify and predict conditions under which inland flooding can result. Field observations will be collected using satellites and airplanes operated by NOAA and other agencies. Equipment such as dual-Doppler radar stationed on the ground and un-piloted aircraft will also be deployed for data collection.
Funding will help establish a Joint Hurricane Test-Bed at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, to convert research results into actual operations. A joint regional numerical weather prediction test-bed will also be established at the David Skaggs Research Center in Boulder, Colorado, and will focus on improving precipitation forecasts. This center will coordinate with and build on the new Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation between NOAA and NASA located at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction in Maryland. Observational test-beds will also be established, on both a Northern Hemisphere scale, with international cooperation through the World Weather Research Program, and on regional scales to support precipitation forecasting on small scales.
What are the benefits?
Reducing the length of coastline under hurricane warnings saves at least $1 million per coastal mile in costs of evacuations and other preparedness actions. At this savings rate, the costs of the initiative can be recovered rapidly as potential hurricane landfall, warning, and evacuation zones are narrowed as a result of new storm models stemming from this research. With about 75 percent of the insured losses in this country directly caused by weather and 95 percent of the Presidentially declared disasters over the last decade weather-related, even small forecast improvements can lead to significant benefits. This initiative will help NOAA achieve one of its mission goals, to Advance Short-Term Warning and Forecast Services, and will take great strides towards protecting the lives and properties of rapidly expanding U.S. coastal communities.