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Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services
Water Information For A Stronger
and Safer America
Each year, floods kill more people than
any other form of severe weather, and cause damages in excess
of $3.5 billion. Three-quarters of all presidentially declared
disasters are the result of flooding. Clearly, hydrologic forecasting
is critical to public safety and the economy.
National implementation of the Advanced
Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS) will save lives and an
estimated $200 million per year in flood losses, and and will
contribute an additional $400 million per year in economic benefits
to water resource users.
AHPS will significantly improve river
forecasts and management in the United States by providing a
fourteen-day outlook and new forecast formats, including visual
displays, which will assist local managers in making decisions
on water manage-ment. The system includes a combination of software
and hardware tools used to analyze data and create graphical
displays of probability forecasts.
AHPS Helps the General Public
AHPS provides the public with more river
forecast information such as:
- how high the river will rise
- when the river will reach its peak
- where property will be flooded
- how long flooding will continue
- how long a drought will last
AHPS Helps Water Managers and
City Officials
AHPS provides better information to water
managers and city officials, helping them to make decisions such
as:
- when and where to evacuate people from
potential flood areas, thus saving more lives.
- when to move goods and industrial property
from flooded areas, thus contributing to economic savings;
- how to utilize reservoir storage capacity
to reduce flood impacts on people and businesses;
- when to reinforce levees and at what
level, to help reduce damage to areas nearby
Using AHPS and by coordinating hydrologic
forecast capabilities with advances in climate prediction, NWS
forecasters can provide water managers with statistical data
useful in making difficult decisions about water allocation and
economics when there is drought potential, such as:
- whether to release water from reservoirs
in the spring or hold it for anticipated agricultural and industrial
needs;
- how much water to release to agriculture
needs during marginal precipitation years;
- how to price and manage water in the
most cost effective manner;
- assessment of risks and potential economic
impacts, when used in conjunction with sophisticated economic
models.
AHPS applies new science which provides
more accurate forecasts for flow conditions ranging from droughts
to floods. AHPS provides more information in a timely and user-friendly
manner, including visual products which can be posted on the
web. This initiative, once it is broadly implemented, will help
save lives and money.
The NWS has been operating AHPS for the
Des Moines River Basin, Iowa since March 1997. North Dakota's
Grand Forks Forecast Office began using AHPS on the Red River
of the North and its tributaries in Minnesota and North Dakota
in January 2001. Contingent on funding, the NWS has finalized
plans to expand implementation of AHPS to Wisconsin, Minnesota,
Michigan and parts of Iowa, Missouri, and North Dakota. The expansion
will also include tributaries within the Ohio River basin in
parts of Kentucky, Ohio, and western Pennsylvania.
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